The Friendly Atheist is struggling to be friendly recently, over an ongoing debate with Astrologer Beth Turnage, who wrote a full review on the astrological reasons that David Foster Williams killed himself.
Now, as my Pilgrims know, I don't like a fight unless I'm involved in it, so I e-mailed Beth with a challenge.
Beth, keen for the challenge, posted her reply a few days after my E-mail. Nothing like the scientific method to rouse people into action it seems!
Firstly, in response to my challenge to predict something successfully she wrote
Unfortunately, as I didn't say, "show me a time when you listened to rumor and claimed it as truth," this doesn't really answer my question. What I asked for was for a future prediction, instead she gave me 3 articles, that just happened to have turned out correct, out of the 100's on her site.
"I do have more hits than misses," she writes. Well, so do I, mostly because my wife yells at me when I make the seat wet. The difference between you and me is that every time I miss I keep a record of it (or rather my wife does and uses it against me at a later date). Where is your record? Show me your ratio of hits vs misses. This would be very easy to do, and very compelling evidence!
However, showing me an 'prediction' for Superbowl Sunday that sounds like every other Bookies prediction doesn't prove your point, even if you do mention a 'T-square configuration.' Personally, I thought you only got them on English Motorways
Finally on this point, we don't know if these articles have been edited since first release. Blogs are constantly updated, and old posts corrected, hence why I asked for a new prediction. This should be quite easy for an expert like you. Even I can do it I predict you will say that this post is closed-minded rubbish..
However, I'm not closed minded, I just seek evidence that can stand up to scrutiny. When you have a 6 year old child in the house you learn to question everything, like how the bathroom sink managed to overflow all on it's own, and all I'm doing is applying the same method to the claims you make.
In response to my second request, my personal profile, Beth writes
Shame, I was hoping for a free Natal chart...
See, here's the thing. I don't really speak, or know Sarah Palin, but if she was to commit suicide tomorrow (here's hoping) I'm pretty sure I could make a fair assessment of her character and personality. People who are always in the news tend to sink into our consciousness whether we like it or not. It's also somewhat hard to believe that Beth knew nothing about Deborah when her astrological Profile contains quotes from Deborah's Family.
So, despite this compelling evidence, I remain unconvinced. It's not that I doubt Beth truly believes, I just don't think this evidence backs up her claim. Most of my pilgrims believe in something stupid, like Ghosts, Psychics or Jesus Christ, and none of their beliefs ever hold up to testing. Beth, I'm afraid, will not be treated any differently, no matter how many times she uses the word Uranus in her posts.
But what do you think? Has Beth actually proven her case? Am I being too Harsh? Has she managed to outsmart the Freelance Guru?
Comment and let me know.
Now, as my Pilgrims know, I don't like a fight unless I'm involved in it, so I e-mailed Beth with a challenge.
I've been following your skeptic debate and would like to offer you a chance to prove your case. It would be very easy to silence the skeptics. In fact I can think of 2 ways for you to do it right now.
1) Successfully predict something.
If you can show that astrology actually can tell the future with a better than chance outcome than not only will the skeptics stop criticizing you but the scientific movement will be desperate to know you!
2) Do an accurate personality profile
Construct a personality profile for me which I can open up to honest review. If there are more hits than misses than possible by chance then people will have to agree this deserves a closer look.
It’s clear that you believe astrology is getting a bad rap from these people, and also clear that you strongly believe in it.
It would by very easy to prove it to the doubters.
Beth, keen for the challenge, posted her reply a few days after my E-mail. Nothing like the scientific method to rouse people into action it seems!
Firstly, in response to my challenge to predict something successfully she wrote
Successfully predict something? Already have and very publicly at that in these pieces:
- November 8, 2007 Angelina Pregnant, You Heard It Here First
- January 24, 2008 John McCain: Presumptive Front Runner?
- January 29, 2008 Superbowl Sunday–Who is Likely to Win?
Unfortunately, as I didn't say, "show me a time when you listened to rumor and claimed it as truth," this doesn't really answer my question. What I asked for was for a future prediction, instead she gave me 3 articles, that just happened to have turned out correct, out of the 100's on her site.
"I do have more hits than misses," she writes. Well, so do I, mostly because my wife yells at me when I make the seat wet. The difference between you and me is that every time I miss I keep a record of it (or rather my wife does and uses it against me at a later date). Where is your record? Show me your ratio of hits vs misses. This would be very easy to do, and very compelling evidence!
However, showing me an 'prediction' for Superbowl Sunday that sounds like every other Bookies prediction doesn't prove your point, even if you do mention a 'T-square configuration.' Personally, I thought you only got them on English Motorways
Finally on this point, we don't know if these articles have been edited since first release. Blogs are constantly updated, and old posts corrected, hence why I asked for a new prediction. This should be quite easy for an expert like you. Even I can do it I predict you will say that this post is closed-minded rubbish..
However, I'm not closed minded, I just seek evidence that can stand up to scrutiny. When you have a 6 year old child in the house you learn to question everything, like how the bathroom sink managed to overflow all on it's own, and all I'm doing is applying the same method to the claims you make.
In response to my second request, my personal profile, Beth writes
Do a successful personality profile? Well yes, I done that too. But doing yours I’m afraid wouldn’t silence the skeptics because they will tell you that you and your family will be subject to all sorts of the ‘manipulative techniques’ that us astrologers have in our bag of tricks.
Shame, I was hoping for a free Natal chart...
Fortunately, I have printed a personality analysis of the D. C. Madam, Deborah Jean Palfry, which was done without speaking or knowing about her in this piece:
D. C. Madam Suicide and Astrology: Was Death Written in the Stars?
See, here's the thing. I don't really speak, or know Sarah Palin, but if she was to commit suicide tomorrow (here's hoping) I'm pretty sure I could make a fair assessment of her character and personality. People who are always in the news tend to sink into our consciousness whether we like it or not. It's also somewhat hard to believe that Beth knew nothing about Deborah when her astrological Profile contains quotes from Deborah's Family.
So, despite this compelling evidence, I remain unconvinced. It's not that I doubt Beth truly believes, I just don't think this evidence backs up her claim. Most of my pilgrims believe in something stupid, like Ghosts, Psychics or Jesus Christ, and none of their beliefs ever hold up to testing. Beth, I'm afraid, will not be treated any differently, no matter how many times she uses the word Uranus in her posts.
But what do you think? Has Beth actually proven her case? Am I being too Harsh? Has she managed to outsmart the Freelance Guru?
Comment and let me know.
Marcus
- Other Skeptical Posts
- Why do the Chinese fear the colour White?
- 9 Reasons to fear 2012
Xander asked me a question before about why his workmates great him by saying 'alright?' and the answer to both his questions is the same. The English moan about the weather as way of opening conversation. It is a safe topic of conversation that is unlikely to cause offense, and very unlikely to result in a serious conversation that would require the anyone to actually put any effort in. The rules on weather conversation are actually quite clear. If it's sunny it's too hot, If it's chilly it's too cold, if it's raining they'll be floods tomorrow and if it's snowing they'll be traffic jams and 3 foot of snow by the morning. If anyone ever dared to say that actually they rather like it when it's raining their fellow conversationalists would be so confused they would most likely stand there fumbling for a while before finally excusing themselves to go find someone more sane to chat too.
